By John Schneidawind, vice president of public affairs, ARTBA
A major infrastructure package “commencing in 2019 with observable effects on output beginning in 2020” is a key driver for sustained economic growth, according to the 2019 Economic Report of the President, released by the Trump administration’s Council of Economic Advisers.
Other components for achieving 3 percent growth over the next decade include more tax cuts, additional deregulation, and moving more people off government aid and into full-time jobs.
The March 19 report analyzes what the administration considers to be the most important macroeconomic developments in 2018 and presents its full, policy-inclusive economic forecast for the next 11 years, including risks to the forecast.
“Assuming full implementation of the Trump administration’s economic policy agenda, we project real U.S. economic output to grow at an average annual rate of 3.0 percent between 2018 and 2029,” the report concludes. But the administration concedes that growth will moderate “from just over 3.0 percent in 2018 and 2019, as the near-term effects of the tax cut legislation’s individual provisions on the rate of growth dissipate into a permanent level effect.” The report concludes that the growth slowdown will be partially offset by the administration’s continued deregulatory actions and the possibility of Congress permanently extending the personal income tax provisions of the 2017 tax cuts, now set to expire in 2025.
While both House and Senate committees have conducted important hearings on infrastructure this year, neither chamber has introduced an infrastructure bill as the first quarter of the year draws to a close. ARTBA will continue working with officials in the administration and on Capitol Hill to ensure major infrastructure legislation that includes a Highway Trust Fund revenue solution is enacted this year.